In 2023, Theo Struyck, a retired US postal worker, was enjoying his golden years, spending quality time with his grandkids in his modest 1,100 square foot home an hour outside Los Angeles. Then, against all odds, he hit the Powerball jackpot: a life-changing $1.7 billion.
The odds of winning were insanely low, a mind-boggling 1 in 292 million. The math is clear: fom a purely rational perspective, buying a lottery ticket is a terrible investment. And the poorer you are, the less it seems worth it. Yet every year, over 90 billion dollars is spent on lottery tickets in the United States. And of that, the poor spend thirty-three times more of their income on tickets than the rich. It’s for this reason that English economist William Petty stated a sentiment that has been echoed for generations: “A Lottery therefore is properly a tax upon unfortunate self-conceited fools.”
It’s a catchy saying, but modern psychology tells us it isn’t entirely true. The lottery isn’t a story about self-conceited fools. It’s a story about hope.
When competing in endurance sport races, you are always on this see-saw, bouncing back and forth between hopeful and hopeless. There are moments when your goals seem out of reach, when everything is going wrong, and you are losing control. You feel hopeless. Rumination, catastrophizing, and quitting often follow. But sometimes you’re able to dig yourself out of this pit of despair, and it comes from the simplest of changes.
Something gives you hope.
You get a boost from a teammate who helps you to re-engage with the race. You see a competitor ahead start to fall back, giving you a target that seems achievable. You shift your goal from being stuck on a finishing time you’ll no longer hit to seeing how many people you can catch in the last mile.
Sometimes hope comes comes from someone yelling at you. During the Olympic Triathlon, Alex Yee found himself 14 seconds down with little hope. Until his fellow countryman, Alastair Brownlee, shouted, “Anything can happen, mate, anything can still happen.” Yee moved from hopeless to hopeful. Instead of settling for where he was, his brain started contemplating that it might be possible to catch the leader. He clawed his way back and took home the gold. A simple shift and a new path emerged.
When people play the lottery, they are trying to cultivate hope for a better path forward, even if it’s slim. Research out of the Netherlands found that in those moments after someone purchases a ticket but before the winner has been announced, participants get a rush of happiness, enjoyment, and hope. There’s a small glimmer of possibility. It’s one of the reasons why lottery sales increase during hard times.
Researchers out of China found that air pollution also increased the demand for lottery tickets. Other work found that more people play the lottery more after a recession or natural disaster. This research points to a clear finding: when things aren’t going well, we seek out hope. And for many, lottery tickets are just that thing. A pathway to close the gap between our reality and our wishes, the possibility of a new future.
We shouldn’t have to rely on the hail Mary of winning the lottery to give people hope. But there’s a lesson in there for all of us.
In running, even the toughest of the tough give up when hope dwindles. You can see it in every elite marathon. Some of the best athletes in the world go from running 4:40 miles to practically walking once their goals drifts away. It’s not for lack of want or effort. But once your goal seems out of reach, your brain does the inner calculus and says, “The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. You’re in a lot of pain,” and essentially shuts you down. It’s the essence of fatigue. If the pain seems too much when compared to your chances of a reward, you slow down.
When it comes to competing or mastery in anything, we like to see effort as something entirely within our control. We talk about grit, willpower, and the ability to grind, but that’s a simplistic view of effort. And one that, in the heat of the moment, doesn’t do us much good. Your brain is going to weigh the costs and benefits and shift your perception of effort accordingly, whether you like it or not.
Theo Struyck’s improbable win and the allure of the lottery, even with its dismal odds, highlights a fundamental human need: hope. We often turn to the lottery not for a rational investment but for a fleeting sense of possibility in the face of hardship. When tough times abound, we crave hope.
While the lottery may not be a sustainable solution, it serves as a reminder of the power of hope in driving us forward. It’s a call to cultivate hope in ourselves and others, not through chance, but through achievable goals and support, recognizing that even in the face of adversity, a path forward exists.
— Steve
